Crises in West Asia and the Reshaping of Regional Balances after 2023: A Study of Alliances and Political and Economic Arrangements

Abstract

This study examines the latent dimensions of the renewed conflict in the Middle East, grounding its analysis in the hypothesis that the ongoing confrontation between the U.S.–Israeli axis and the Iran-led axis transcends its declared military theatre. It argues that the underlying strategic objective is to transform Israel into a subordinate central imperial power exercising hegemony over West Asia, thereby enabling the United States to reallocate its strategic focus toward great-power competition with China.

The study is structured around four analytical axes. First, it investigates U.S.–Zionist orientations in redrawing the regional map, capitalizing on Arab fragmentation and the condition of Gulf acquiescence. Second, it analyzes the construction of an “arc of alliances” extending from India to Greece via the Gulf states, Jordan, and Israel, designed to encircle and isolate opposing forces. Third, it addresses the acceleration of economic arrangements, particularly the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which, while ostensibly framed as a trade and logistics initiative, fundamentally seeks to contain China’s Belt and Road Initiative and to position the ports of Haifa and Ashdod as pivotal global energy and commercial hubs—thereby undermining both the strategic relevance of the Suez Canal and Russian influence over European energy security. Fourth, it evaluates selected outcomes of the U.S.–Iran confrontation, which has exposed the structural fragility of the Gulf security architecture premised on external security guarantees.

The study concludes that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states constitute the principal strategic losers, given their substantial financial underwriting of the U.S. military presence and its associated costs. It recommends that Iraq assume a pivotal role in advancing a collective security framework for West Asia, refrain from engagement in alliances that erode national sovereignty, and work toward the maturation of an Arab–Islamic defensive alliance capable of providing a credible deterrent against the U.S.–Israeli hegemonic project.